POLITICO
By PATRICK O’CONNOR & JOHN BRESNAHAN & JONATHAN ALLEN | 11/7/09 7:16 PM EST
Hours before an expected vote on a sweeping health care bill, House Democrats believe they’ve secured the 218 votes they need to approve the bill, several party insiders said.
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi took to the House floor about 6:30 p.m. to say, “Today we will pass the Affordable Health Care for America Act.. . .We will make history. We will also make progress for America’s working families.”
In response to a question about whether the bill would pass when she brought it up, Pelosi told reporters Saturday night, “That is our expectation.”
Thirty-two Democrats have publicly declared their opposition to the bill, giving party leaders the narrowest possible margin to push the bill across the finish line. But numerous sources said Democrats believe they do have the votes after a day of intense lobbying of wavering Democrats.
Votes have a tendency to shift in the final hours before a controversial vote, but party leaders were expressing more genuine confidence as the sun set over the Capitol than they had exhibited all week. Word started spreading around 5 p.m. that leaders had the votes they needed to pass the $1.2 trillion bill.
Pelosi had all-but-predicted passage of a House health reform bill earlier Saturday, following an emotional appeal from President Barack Obama to fellow Democrats urging them to “answer the call of history” and vote yes.
But she and her top lieutenants earlier stopped short of saying they had the 218 votes needed for passage – signaling a day of vote-wrangling and arm-twisting that could stretch into Saturday night.
And Pelosi spokesman Nadeam Elshami declined to comment. “We are not commenting on whip counts,” Elshami said.
The stakes for Obama and Pelosi are high – and Obama has made health care his signature legislative priority this year. But Democrats have been skittish of backing the $1.2 trillion measure after Tuesday’s Democratic election washout and Friday’s 10-percent-plus unemployment rate. Obama urged Democrats not to pass up the chance to make history.
“Now’s the time to finish the job,” Obama said in the Rose Garden, following a 30-minute closed-door meeting with the House Democratic caucus on Capitol Hill.
“I reminded them that opportunities like this come around maybe once in a generation,” Obama said. “This is their moment, this is our moment, to live up to the trust that the American people have placed in us — even when it’s hard; especially when it’s hard. This is our moment to deliver.”
Obama left the Hill without addressing reporters, but Pelosi took to the microphones after he left sounding confident of passage. “Today we will make not only history, but progress for America’s working families,” she said.
In his last-minute appeal in the Cannon House Office Building, Obama steered clear of legislative details to focus on the historic impact of the vote, comparing this reform push to the establishment of Social Security and Medicare – and reminding Democrats that both were criticized by those who predicted they would eventually lead to the country’s collapse.
Obama also reminded them that voting no on the health care bill wouldn’t insulate them from Republican attacks anyway.
“Are we going to stop now, or push forward?” Obama asked.
“Push forward,” a dozen or so Democrats shouted back.
Rep. Joe Crowley (D-N.Y.) said he thought Obama may have shifted some undecided Democrats into the “yes” column. “I think there were a number of folks in there moved by what [Obama] said, no question about it,” Crowley said.
Ahead of Obama’s visit, House leaders won the backing of the nation’s Catholic bishops for a last-minute abortion compromise, a critical boost that could give the health reform bill enough momentum – and enough votes – for passage Saturday.
The Obama administration and Democrats expect a day filled with skirmishes but with the bishops’ support of the abortion amendment now behind them, there is new confidence of winning passage.
“I think you’re seeing a level of pragmatism settling in,” said House Educations and Labor Committee Chairman George Miller (D-Calif.). of the different factions in his caucus. “This is a roll call people will remember for the rest of their lives.”
“The things that are up in the air now are what happens after final passage — I hope,” said Rep. Henry Waxman (D-Calif.), whose House Energy and Commerce Committee moved the legislation.
But one of the chief vote-counters, Rep. James Clyburn (D-S.C.), warned, “Anytime you add an amendment to a bill there’s an additional challenge.”
During the day’s first round of votes to corral support for the bill, Majority Leader Steny Hoyer made a rare appearance in the Speaker’s Lobby, just off the House floor, to look for colleagues. He told a group of reporters, “I’m always gun-shy…At this moment, I’m counting.”
Abortion flared up as a last-minute obstacle to passage, as anti-abortion members pressed for – and won – a vote on an amendment barring insurance companies that participate in the exchange from covering abortions.
That prompted the letter of support for the compromise from the United States Conference of Catholic Bishops.
“Passing this amendment allows the House to meet our criteria of preserving the existing protections against abortion funding in the new legislation,” the bishops wrote in a letter to individual members. “Most importantly, it will ensure that no government funds will be used for abortion or health plans which include abortion.”
It’s another bitter pill for liberal Democrats but party leaders are gambling that the amendment will be just the breakthrough they need to secure a majority. Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-Ohio) says she’ll vote for the bill if the amendment by Rep. Bart Stupak (D-Mich.) is adopted but remains undecided if it fails. “I hope that won’t happen,” she said.
Stupak said he has about 220 votes for his amendment, making him confident of passage. House Republican Leader John Boehner and Reps. Eric Cantor and Mike Pence will all vote “yes” on the Stupak amendment and are putting that word out to members, said a senior Boehner aide.
On the left, most Democratic advocates of abortion rights appear likely to swallow hard and vote for a health care overhaul anyway.
“I don’t believe any of us believe we can hold up what we’ve been fighting for … and that’s health care,” said Rep. Louise Slaughter (D-N.Y.).
Asked whether her allies in the pro-choice movement would support the bill with the Stupak language, Pelosi offered a one-word answer: “Yes.”
At least 23 Democrats have come out against the bill, giving Pelosi a buffer of 17 votes to work with. But there could easily be another 20 Democrats in the “lean no” category, not to mention the broad universe of undecided lawmakers. So Pelosi and her team essentially need every undecided vote and four or five “lean no’s.” That’s a difficult dynamic for any party at any time, but the election results and unemployment rates that just eclipsed 10 percent don’t help.
Republicans, meanwhile, remained steadfastly opposed to the bill, and no Republicans are expected to vote yes on the overall legislation.
Boehner (R-Ohio) fired a warning shot at Democrats this morning, saying “we’re going to do everything we can to try to stop” the bill from passing.
Boehner did not specify what delay tactics he might employ to try to slow the passage of the bill, but as the leader of the party it is customary that he would have unlimited time to speak on the floor about the bill. He once read an entire bill on the floor. “As the day goes on, we’re going to do everything we can to make sure this doesn’t happen,” Boehner said.
Republicans toted out a color-splashed chart which showed the 111 bureaucracies they say will be created under the Democrats’ bill. “In terms of sheer bureaucracy, if the IRS and Medicare had a baby, it would look like this,” said Rep. Kevin Brady (R-Texas).
With a slew of conservative Blue Dog Democrats still on the fence about supporting the legislation, Boehner said several members of his party are talking to “friends across the aisle” about their support. “We’re going to see what those who profess to be conservative Democrats are made of,” said Pence (R-Ind.), House Republican Conference Chair.
House leaders decided on about six hours of debate, meaning a vote could come as early as 6 p.m.. But a variety of other votes are expected to be scheduled – so the House whips can do their nose-counting – and that could push a vote into well into the night.
Pelosi and other House leaders appeared confident of a Saturday vote – but had some nervous moments on Friday as a steady stream of members declared themselves firm “no’s.” Among the 23 “nos,” all but three are from members who represent districts won by John McCain. Of the three no votes from districts that Obama carried, two of them are from districts that Obama narrowly carried with 52 percent – -and both were Republican-held districts that just flipped to Dems in 2008.
Then there is Artur Davis of Alabama, who is from a 74 percent Obama district. But he is running statewide for governor in a McCain state.
But if the House passes health reform Saturday night, it will be the deal on abortion language that will have been the final impetus. Leaders reluctantly made the decision after working for days to broker a truce that would garner a blessing from the Conference of Catholic Bishops. But the church, according to members and aides, wouldn’t accept a compromise crafted by Indiana Rep. Brad Ellsworth that would have established a body to make sure private insurance companies don’t use federal funds to pay for abortions.
In the end, the Rules Committee decided to give Stupak a floor vote on his amendment to prohibit private insurers from using federal funds to pay for abortion or allowing companies that participate in the exchange from offering coverage through those plans. Given the strength of the anti-abortion vote in the House, the amendment should pass when it comes to the floor and will therefore become part of the broader bill.
Chris Frates contributed to this story.
